Publications

Google scholar (06/03/2025): 54 citations; H-index: 3

A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data

With Beine, M., Bertinelli, L., Litina, M., & Maystadt, J-F.

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring these measures to a micro-founded gravity model in order to estimate the main drivers of refugee mobility across 26 regions in 2017. Our results show that the movements of refugees are sensitive to income differentials and contribute therefore to a more efficient allocation of labor across space. Comparing these findings with those of individuals with a non-refugee status, we find that refugees are more sensitive to variations of income at origin and to distance, while less responsive to changes in income at destination. These findings are robust to the way mobility is inferred from phone data and to the choice of the geographical unit of investigation. Further, we provide evidence against some alternative explanations of mobility such as the propensity to leave refugee camps, transit through Turkey, social magnet effects and sensitivity to agricultural business cycles.

Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas
With Bertinelli, L. & Maystadt, J-F.
This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 SubS-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.

Societal Aging and Attitudes towards Women in the Labor Market: Evidence from European Countries
With Irmen, A. & Litina, A.
This paper examines the relationship between societal aging and attitudes toward women in the labor market. We hypothesize that, up to a certain point, these attitudes are more favorable as societies grow ”older”. In these societies, people may better recognize that an increase in female labor force participation can help mitigate the challenges that societal aging imposes on the welfare state. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a multilevel analysis of individuals from 25 European OECD countries between 2004 and 2017, using the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) as a proxy for societal aging and gender-related questions from the European Social Survey (ESS). Our findings reveal a hump-shaped relationship between societal aging and attitudes towards women in the labor market. In the early stages of demographic change, particularly in countries with a rising OADR, positive attitudes can be attributed to the recognition that an aging population necessitates a larger working-age population, making women a logical resource for expansion, thus fostering more favorable norms. However, as societal aging progresses further, conservative views associated with older populations begin to dominate, leading to a deterioration in gender norms.